United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market prices the probability of an exact scoreline at 11%, reflecting the wide range of possible outcomes across a 90-minute match. Predicting a precise final score is inherently difficult; even heavily favoured teams rarely settle matches at a single, predetermined margin. The current implied probability suggests traders view a specific scoreline as unlikely relative to the catch-all "Any Other Score" category, which typically captures the majority of resolution weight in exact-score markets.

Historical precedent from World Cup group-stage matches shows that exact-score markets rarely see YES resolutions above 15–20%, even when one team is substantially stronger. The 2022 Qatar tournament produced several lopsided results—Germany's 4–2 victory over Costa Rica and Spain's 7–0 win over Costa Rica—yet even dominant performances rarely cluster around a single predicted line. Paraguay qualified for 2026 as South American runners-up and will arrive as underdogs, but the CONMEBOL pathway suggests sufficient defensive organisation to avoid extreme scorelines. The United States, managed by Mauricio Pochettino since late 2024, has emphasised structured play; recent friendlies and Nations League fixtures indicate a team capable of controlling possession without necessarily producing high-volume goals.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins from both federations in the weeks preceding the match. Pochettino's tactical selections and any late withdrawals from the US roster could shift expected goal-scoring patterns. Paraguay's preparation schedule and any coaching adjustments under their current setup will also influence defensive solidity. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing only the regulation 90 minutes plus stoppage time to determine the outcome.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.