Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cajamarca (-1.5) | 0% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca (-2.5) | 0% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Cajamarca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| ADC Juan Pablo II College 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Cajamarca and ADC Juan Pablo II College face off in Peru’s Liga 1 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón on 17 July 2026, with the match kicking off at 2:00 PM ET. The 0% YES probability for the unspecified “more markets” outcome aligns with the teams’ recent head-to-head pattern: their last encounter on 31 January 2026 ended in a 3–3 draw, underscoring a history of tightly contested, high-scoring affairs between the sides [1][3]. Such volatility often suppresses binary market confidence when the settlement hinges on a specific, narrow event unlikely to recur without a clear catalyst.
Both clubs sit level after one match each in the 2026 season, with ADC Juan Pablo II and FC Cajamarca holding identical records of one win, one point, and no goals conceded or scored in their opening fixtures [4]. No coaching changes or key absences have been publicly reported ahead of this fixture, and neither team has faced a significant schedule disruption that would alter form [2]. Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late injury updates from club sources or beat reporters covering Liga 1, as these could shift probabilities if the market hinges on player-specific outcomes.
Historical data suggests draws are frequent between these teams, with their last meeting producing six total goals and no winner [5]. Unless a new variable—such as a tactical shift, suspension, or weather disruption—emerges, the current 0% probability reflects the absence of a clear trigger for the market’s specific condition.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for FC Cajamarca vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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