Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 100% |
| Draw | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol | 0% |
Market context
Maccabi Tel Aviv host FC Sheriff Tiraspol in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League qualifier with a 5-0 lead from the first meeting in Tiraspol, where Maccabi scored five without reply[1][12][14]. That makes the market’s 100% YES price easy to understand: the tie already looks effectively over unless there is a severe and immediate collapse, and several previews describe Sheriff’s task as requiring a “miracle” against the aggregate deficit[9].
The broader form line also leans strongly towards Maccabi. FootballCritic’s recent results show Maccabi had been beaten heavily in European league-stage games earlier in the cycle, but Sheriff’s recent European run was only marginally steadier and still led into the five-goal defeat[3][6]. In the first leg, Maccabi’s goals came from open play and a penalty, while Sheriff’s discipline issues were exposed by multiple bookings, which is a useful frame for reading this rematch: the market is not pricing a balanced contest, but a continuation of a one-sided tie[2][12].
The main catalysts to watch are team-news and any late rotation in Maccabi’s selection, because a large aggregate cushion can change incentives even when the result itself looks secure. Sports Mole’s preview framed the second leg around Sheriff needing a huge swing and Maccabi merely needing to manage the tie, which means confirmed line-ups, any defensive absences, and whether Maccabi keep their strongest attacking unit in place will matter more than headline win probability[9]. The venue listings differ across services, so the practical trigger for traders is the official matchday team sheet rather than the pre-match venue label, especially with the settlement window closing at kick-off[8][13].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $94K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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