New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a WNBA match-up between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces, scheduled for 23 June at 10:00PM ET, where the market resolves to the winner of the final score including overtime. Historical precedents frame the current 100% probability as highly unusual; in their 2025 season opener, the Liberty won 92–78, and in a mid-season clash later that year, they secured an 87–78 victory despite the absence of Aces star A’ja Wilson[1][2]. Even in the 2025 Semi-Finals, where the Aces faced elimination for the first time since 2021, they forced a Game 4 but ultimately lost the series, suggesting the Liberty’s defensive structure consistently neutralises the Aces’ offensive firepower[3].

Traders should monitor two key catalysts before the settlement window closes: first, any official announcement regarding A’ja Wilson’s availability, as her absence has previously correlated with Liberty wins[1]; second, the final roster confirmation for the Liberty, particularly Breanna Stewart’s fitness, given her 20-point contribution in the most recent head-to-head encounter[5]. While the Aces hold a superior league record (30–14) compared to the Liberty (27–17), recent form indicates the Liberty’s home-court advantage and depth in guard play, led by Sabrina Ionescu’s 28-point performance in their last win, outweigh the Aces’ statistical edge[1][5]. No league-wide delays or cancellations are currently reported, meaning the market will resolve strictly on the game outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.