Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a single WNBA regular-season match between the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever, scheduled for 24 June at 7:30PM ET in Indianapolis, where the winner is determined by final score including overtime. Historical head-to-head data shows the Mercury hold a slight edge with 31 wins to the Fever’s 26, yet recent form has swung decisively toward Indiana. In their first 2026 meeting on 22 June, the Fever overcame a disastrous first quarter—outscored 19–6—to win 86–77, with Caitlin Clark delivering 24 points and nine assists[1][2]. This resilience mirrors their 2025 comeback victory of 107–101 when short-handed, suggesting a team capable of absorbing early deficits and capitalising on second-half momentum[5].

Traders should monitor pre-game injury reports for both squads, particularly the status of Fever’s Aliyah Boston and Mercury’s DeWanna Bonner, whose availability could shift the 100% crowd-implied probability if unexpected absences emerge[2]. The game’s physical nature is a key dependency: the June 22 clash featured six technical fouls, an ejection, and on-court aggression including a knee to Clark’s groin and a fist push to her neck[1][8]. Any escalation in officiating tone or player conduct could alter scoring dynamics. Additionally, the Fever’s 10–7 record and strong home performance at Gainbridge Fieldhouse contrast with the Mercury’s inconsistent away form, reinforcing the current market tilt[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.