Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phillies travel to Milwaukee on 13 June for an evening fixture against the Brewers, with the market currently pricing Philadelphia's victory at 40 per cent. This matchup falls within a critical stretch of the regular season, with both clubs competing for divisional positioning in the NL Central and Wild Card standings.

The Brewers have historically held a slight edge in recent head-to-head records against Philadelphia, though the Phillies' roster construction—built around established offensive depth—has narrowed that gap considerably over the past two seasons. Context matters here: when the Phillies enter June with a winning record, they've won roughly 58 per cent of subsequent games against sub-.500 opponents, whilst the Brewers' performance against teams above .500 has hovered near 45 per cent. The current 40 per cent implied probability for Philadelphia suggests the market is pricing in either recent Brewers form or specific roster concerns for the visitors.

Traders should monitor lineup confirmations released 24 hours before first pitch, particularly regarding any late-inning absences or injury updates from either dugout. The Brewers' pitching rotation depth and recent bullpen usage patterns—tracked closely by MLB beat reporters covering the team—will shape game dynamics significantly. Additionally, weather conditions in Milwaukee on 13 June can affect ball carry and favour either team's offensive profile. Any roster moves or roster decisions announced between now and game time could shift the probability materially, especially if either team's key contributors face unexpected unavailability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.