Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 31.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| O/U 33.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 90% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| O/U 37.5 | 83% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| O/U 40.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 43.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 60% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 47.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| O/U 49.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 43% |
| O/U 52.5 | 42% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 53.5 | 40% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 34% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 56.5 | 32% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 29% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Patriots vs. Bills | 27% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 58.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -16.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| O/U 61.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Spread -19.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| O/U 62.5 | 18% |
| O/U 63.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 67.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Safety? | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Patriots vs. Bills. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If the game is postponed, th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $797K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Patriots vs. Bills. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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