Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group C match between Morocco and Haiti at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, scheduled for 6:00 PM ET on 24 June 2026, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute regulation score. Morocco currently holds four points from two matches, having drawn their opener and secured a narrow 1–0 victory against Scotland, while Haiti sits at zero points after losses to Brazil and Scotland[1][3]. The crowd-implied 5% probability for an exact score reflects the historical rarity of precise outcomes in World Cup fixtures between teams of disparate recent form, where defensive solidity often overrides attacking flair. Comparable cases include Morocco’s 1–0 win over Scotland and their 1–1 draw with Brazil, suggesting a low-scoring affair where any exact score is statistically marginal[3].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements and injury updates, particularly regarding Morocco’s defensive core, which has kept a clean sheet in nine of their last ten wins[5]. Haiti’s recent 0–3 defeat to Brazil highlights their vulnerability against top-tier attacks, with only three of seven attempts on target in that match[6]. Key catalysts include weather conditions in Atlanta and any late coaching adjustments, as Morocco’s manager has shown tactical flexibility in recent internationals[3]. No major suspensions have been reported, but the absence of Haiti’s primary striker could further dampen scoring potential, making an exact score even less probable[6]. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 24 June, with postponed matches remaining open until completion[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.