World Cup Group B Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage runs 11–27 June, with Group B's composition and fixture schedule finalised following the draw in December 2025. The 28% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty around which of the four group teams will accumulate the most points across three matches, with tiebreakers (goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record) potentially decisive if teams finish level on points.

Historical World Cup group-stage data shows that pre-tournament favourites win their groups roughly 60–70% of the time, though upsets occur regularly enough to justify wider probability distributions. The 2022 Qatar tournament saw several unexpected group winners, including Japan topping Group E ahead of Spain and Germany. Current squad depth, recent qualifying form, and managerial continuity matter substantially; teams that qualified with dominant records and retain their core players typically outperform those with recent coaching transitions or injury concerns. Comparative odds from major sportsbooks will signal consensus strength rankings once the draw is confirmed.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through spring 2026, particularly regarding injuries to key players and any late managerial changes. Fixture scheduling within the group—specifically whether a team plays stronger opposition early or late—can affect momentum and qualification scenarios. Pre-tournament friendlies in May and early June will provide form indicators; ESPN and Sky Sports typically report on squad fitness and tactical adjustments in the fortnight before the tournament begins. Any significant withdrawals or late replacements could shift group dynamics materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.