Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mary Stoiana and Celine Naef are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of the Ilkley grass-court tournament on 13 June 2026. The match carries a settlement window extending to 20 June, allowing seven days for completion or rescheduling before the market defaults to 50-50 resolution.

The 0% implied probability for Stoiana reflects either extreme confidence in Naef's superiority or minimal trading activity in this particular fixture. Historical precedent suggests that opening-round matches at Ilkley between players ranked outside the top 100 often see thin liquidity, with probabilities skewing toward the higher-ranked player by default rather than through substantive analysis. Naef's recent grass-court record and seeding status (if applicable) would typically anchor such pricing, though the absence of trading volume here indicates the market may not yet have attracted serious attention from specialist tennis traders.

Traders should monitor three developments before settlement. First, confirmation of both players' participation in the draw—withdrawals or late scratches are common at lower-ranked events and would trigger the 50-50 clause. Second, any coaching or fitness announcements from either camp in the fortnight before play; recent form on grass, particularly results from warm-up tournaments in May, will shape actual match dynamics. Third, weather disruptions affecting the Ilkley schedule, as the Yorkshire venue's outdoor courts are vulnerable to rain delays that could push the match beyond the seven-day window. The WTA's official entry list and tournament updates through mid-June remain the primary information sources for resolving these contingencies.

Methodology

This page reviews Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.