Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passing through its 21-nautical-mile width annually. Warship transits by non-regional powers have historically been rare but not unprecedented, typically occurring during periods of elevated geopolitical tension or as deliberate shows of force in response to regional instability. The current 4% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that most major naval powers will avoid formal transits through this chokepoint over the next 18 months, preferring alternative routes or diplomatic channels to manage their interests in the Persian Gulf.

Historical precedent suggests transits spike during specific flashpoints rather than occurring steadily. The United States Navy has conducted occasional freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait, whilst European navies have transited less frequently. Iran's periodic threats to close the waterway and its history of confrontations with foreign vessels create a high diplomatic cost for any transit, making most nations reluctant to test Iranian tolerance. Recent years have seen relative stability compared to 2019–2020, when tensions peaked following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent attacks on tankers.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding regional escalations, particularly any Iranian military actions, shifts in US Middle East policy under the incoming administration, or declarations of intent by European navies conducting Gulf operations. Scheduled maintenance cycles at US naval bases in the region and any formal statements from the International Maritime Organization regarding strait security could alter calculus. Intelligence reports of Iranian weapons transfers or proxy activity that might trigger a Western response would represent the most credible catalyst for a warship transit within the settlement window.

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