Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Maya Joint’s meeting with Tereza Valentova in Prague is an ordinary WTA match-up, but the market is pricing it as a one-sided contest rather than a close coin flip. Pre-match preview sites went the same way, both siding with Valentova and quoting short odds around 1.35 for the Czech player against roughly 3.18 for Joint, which is consistent with a strong favourite rather than an upset-prone pick[2][3]. The current 0% YES price therefore reflects a very low expectation that Joint progresses, not a literal belief that her chances are impossible[1].
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: any official WTA scheduling update, a late withdrawal, or a match start being pushed back beyond the market’s settlement window would change the resolution path materially[1]. The contract is designed to resolve to 50-50 if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed by more than seven days without a winner, so the practical risk is less about form in isolation and more about whether the fixture is completed as planned[1]. Because the resolution source is the official WTA Tour, any last-minute change in draw status or court order matters more than speculative preview content[1].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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