Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by 2025?

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Market context

Russia’s claim that it has fully captured Kostyantynivka is contradicted by independent battlefield evidence, which shows only fragmented infiltrations rather than consolidated control [1][2]. The city remains a critical node in Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” guarding the approach to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and its defence has held since late 2025 despite sustained Russian pressure [1][5]. Comparable cases, such as the months-long battle for Pokrovsk earlier in 2026, demonstrate how Moscow often declares victory prematurely while tactical gains remain slow and costly [4]. ISW assesses that Russian forces hold only 36.98% of the city, with most advances consisting of small infiltrator groups unable to establish enduring positions [2][3].

Traders should monitor official Ukrainian frontline reports and ISW’s daily campaign assessments for shifts in territorial control percentages [2][3]. A key catalyst is whether Russia can consolidate its June gains into enduring positions before the autumn slowdown, as its advance rate has been steadily declining since November 2025 [3]. The Kremlin’s self-imposed September deadline for capturing the entire Donbas region is unlikely to be met, given Ukraine’s successful counterattacks in Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka directions [3][4]. Watch for announcements on Russian combined arms army deployments to the Kostyantynivka area, as ISW notes at least one CAA and one AC are already engaged, yet casualties remain high [3]. Any claim of full capture must be weighed against evidence of “gray zones” where neither side controls the terrain [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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