Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather in late August sits firmly within the city's summer monsoon season, when daytime highs typically range between 26–32°C, though occasional heat waves can push temperatures above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about the specific resolution mechanics tied to Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary.

Historical August data from Beijing Capital International Airport shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly 20–30% of years during this period, with the city's record August high standing at 41.9°C in 1999. More recent decades have seen average August highs stabilise around 29–31°C, though individual days regularly breach 33°C. The current zero probability appears misaligned with baseline climatology unless the market is pricing in an unusually cool weather pattern or reflecting confusion about which data source Weather Underground will report.

Traders should monitor mid-August weather forecasts from China's meteorological authority and track any El Niño or monsoon pattern shifts that could suppress temperatures. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations granular readings and its Day High & Low summary matters operationally; historical discrepancies between automated station data and processed summaries have occasionally created resolution disputes on weather markets. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 21 August 2026, meaning the final recorded observation from Beijing Capital International Airport will determine the outcome.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.