Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport determining the market outcome. August represents the tail end of Guangzhou's monsoon season, though rainfall typically diminishes by late month, allowing daytime temperatures to climb substantially.

Historical records show Guangzhou's August daily highs consistently exceed 32°C, with readings frequently reaching 34–36°C during the latter half of the month. The city's coastal location and urban heat island effect create conditions where temperatures at the airport station—situated north of the city centre—tend to track slightly cooler than downtown measurements. Over the past decade, 21 August highs have ranged from 31.2°C to 35.8°C, establishing a baseline for typical late-summer conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an extremely narrow or implausible temperature band, warranting scrutiny of the specific resolution thresholds.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August, as storm systems can introduce cloud cover and precipitation that suppress daytime maxima by several degrees. The China Meteorological Administration issues forecasts 10–14 days ahead; their mid-August bulletin will clarify whether monsoon patterns persist or high-pressure systems dominate. Airport station instrumentation and calibration remain consistent year-to-year, though Weather Underground's Daily Observations table occasionally records readings that diverge marginally from official summaries, making source verification critical at settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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