Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 1 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading forms the basis for resolving which temperature band the day's peak will fall into, with settlement occurring once the Observatory publishes its official daily extract data.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric conditions. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's highest temperature threshold to sit above realistic June conditions, making the current odds a reflection of how the bands have been structured rather than an absence of heat on that date.

The key variable affecting 1 June 2026 will be the position and intensity of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system relative to southern China. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks released in May, which typically indicate whether early-summer conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures. Typhoon activity in late May could also suppress temperatures if a system approaches the region, whilst a stable, settled pattern would favour warmer readings. The Observatory publishes its daily extract data within days of the observation date, so resolution timing depends on standard administrative processing rather than forecast uncertainty.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.