Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory and recorded to one decimal place in their Daily Extract dataset. June sits within Hong Kong's early summer period, when the territory transitions from spring monsoon conditions toward the onset of the southwest monsoon. Historical patterns show considerable variability in daily maxima during this month, influenced by the timing and intensity of weather systems moving across the South China Sea.

The Hong Kong Observatory's 30-year climate normals place the mean daily maximum for June at approximately 31°C, though individual days regularly exceed 33°C when high-pressure systems dominate. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands offered by the market. Historical June records at the Observatory's King's Park station show daily maxima ranging from 26°C to 36°C, with extremes driven by tropical cyclone proximity, upper-level ridge positioning, and sea-surface temperature anomalies in surrounding waters. Comparable early-June dates in recent years (2019–2024) recorded maxima between 29°C and 34°C, establishing the likely settlement range.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June 2026, as these directly influence atmospheric circulation patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, requiring the Observatory to publish finalised daily data before resolution can occur. Any delays in the Observatory's data release schedule would postpone settlement until the official Daily Extract becomes available.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.