Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 12 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This reading forms the basis for settlement, with the exact value determining which temperature range bracket resolves as correct.

Historical temperature data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows that early-to-mid June typically falls within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period. Average daily maxima in this window range between 29–32°C, though extremes have reached into the mid-to-high 30s during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature bands or treating this as a calibration exercise given the settlement window extends to the actual date of measurement.

The key dependency for trading this market is the publication timeline of the Hong Kong Observatory's daily climate data. Historical records indicate the Observatory publishes its "Daily Extract" with finalised temperature readings within 24–48 hours of the measurement date, though traders should monitor the official climate data portal for any delays or revisions. Seasonal patterns favour warmer readings during early June, particularly if high-pressure systems dominate the region or if tropical air masses move northward ahead of the southwest monsoon onset. Traders should cross-reference any available weather forecasts from late May 2026 to assess atmospheric conditions likely to influence the maximum temperature on the specified date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.