Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing sunny conditions with a forecasted maximum of 33°C, while short-range models predict highs between 33–34°C for 24 June 2026[1][3]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific "Yes" outcome reflects the market’s inability to resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory finalises its Daily Extract for that date, a process that has not yet occurred[1]. Historically, June in Hong Kong sees average highs of 28–32°C, with July and August typically hotter at around 32°C[4]. The seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly projects above-normal temperatures, suggesting the 33–34°C range is plausible rather than anomalous[6].

Traders should monitor the official release of the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" from the Hong Kong Observatory once the Daily Extract is published, as this is the sole resolution source[1]. No announcements or schedule changes are expected, but the dependency on the Observatory’s data finalisation is critical; the market cannot settle until this information is confirmed[1]. Recent weather updates confirm current conditions are sunny with a maximum of 33°C, aligning with the model forecasts[3]. The key catalyst is the Observatory’s data publication, which will determine the exact temperature range for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.