Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid is set for another hot August day, with forecasts and climate normals both pointing well into the 30s Celsius. Aemet’s Madrid climate extremes show the city’s August absolute maximum at **40.7°C** at Retiro, while broader August averages are far lower, which means the market usually depends on whether a specific day produces a routine hot afternoon or an exceptional spike.[11][13]

That helps explain the current **0% YES** crowd view: it is consistent with a market where the threshold bands are being priced against the upper end of the distribution rather than the most likely day-to-day outcome. Weather guidance for 7 August points to a sunny, very warm setup around **36°C** to **38°C** in Madrid, and regional reporting says interior Spain remains in a widespread heat pattern with temperatures above **35°C** across large areas of the peninsula.[7][5][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the exact evolution of the afternoon forecast and any late-day convective or wind changes that could cap the airport station’s peak. The settlement source is Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, so intraday updates matter more than the summary high/low box if they diverge.[2] Comparable recent heat episodes in Spain have shown that official heatwave conditions can push Madrid close to 40°C, but airport readings can still settle a few tenths below headline city figures depending on timing and local conditions.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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