Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 June 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the range options available or treating this as a genuine open question rather than a near-certain outcome.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching the low 90s. The National Weather Service records show that 11 June has seen highs varying considerably year to year—some years reaching 88–92°F, others remaining in the mid-70s. This variability reflects the unpredictability of early summer weather patterns in the Northeast, where Atlantic systems and continental air masses compete for influence. Comparable June dates at LaGuardia have produced highs anywhere from 72°F to 91°F depending on the year, establishing a wide historical band that should anchor expectations.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models released in late May 2026, which typically offer the most reliable guidance for specific dates two to three weeks ahead. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, and any early tropical activity could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture, whilst high-pressure systems tracking northward would elevate them. Real-time weather forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement, making early-market positions vulnerable to substantial revision as the date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.