Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 12 June 2026, with that single daily peak to be measured in Fahrenheit and matched against predetermined ranges. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's historical data feed for the airport station, which captures hourly readings throughout the day. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded—the market's actual resolution depends on which range bracket contains that peak.

New York City's June climate typically produces highs between 75°F and 85°F, though the city regularly experiences days exceeding 90°F during early summer heat waves. Historical June records at LaGuardia show a range from 59°F to 96°F, with median highs around 79°F. The current probability distribution suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the day will fall within expected seasonal bounds rather than representing an extreme outlier in either direction.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 12 June, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric patterns affecting the Northeast. Seasonal factors—including any developing heat domes or cool fronts—typically become clearer five to seven days before the event. The settlement window closes at midday on 12 June, meaning final resolution occurs after the day's peak temperature has likely already been recorded, eliminating real-time trading opportunities once morning forecasts confirm the trajectory.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.