Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 30 May 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. LaGuardia's official weather station provides the baseline measurement used across meteorological records and commercial weather services. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the peak temperature likely to occur during late spring in New York City.

Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that late May temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves. The record high for 30 May itself stands at 89°F, set in 1991. Over the past decade, temperatures on this specific date have clustered in the 78–84°F band, suggesting that extreme heat is neither routine nor impossible. Traders should reference the 30-year climate normal of approximately 79°F as a baseline against which to assess probability distributions across the available ranges.

The primary catalyst affecting outcomes will be the position of the jet stream and any Atlantic high-pressure system in late May 2026. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA, typically released three to four weeks ahead, will provide the first indication of whether anomalous warmth is likely. Real-time forecast models become reliable roughly ten days before the date. Any significant heat dome tracking towards the Northeast would shift probabilities towards higher temperature ranges; conversely, a pattern favouring cool Canadian air masses would suppress readings towards the lower end of the historical distribution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.