Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 12 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the official observation point for the metropolitan area. Early summer in Seoul typically brings warm, humid conditions as the East Asian monsoon season approaches, with daily highs commonly ranging between 25–28°C in mid-June, though temperatures can occasionally exceed 30°C during heat waves.

Historical data from Wunderground shows that Seoul's June temperatures have exhibited considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on or near 12 June ranged from 22°C to 32°C, reflecting the influence of both seasonal patterns and transient weather systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of moderate conditions rather than extreme heat, though this baseline should be tested against seasonal forecasts issued in late May 2026.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically released 7–10 days before the target date, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture are expected to dominate Seoul's weather. The timing of the East Asian summer monsoon onset—historically variable between late May and early July—will be a critical factor determining whether atmospheric conditions favour above-average or near-normal temperatures on that specific date. Real-time adjustments should follow any official heat-wave warnings issued by South Korean authorities in the days preceding 12 June.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.