Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-June typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the region transitions into summer. The settlement uses data from Incheon International Airport Station, which serves as the official reference point for the metropolitan area's temperature records. June 13th falls within Seoul's pre-monsoon period, when afternoon highs commonly reach the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, though conditions can vary significantly based on air mass positioning and cloud cover.

Historical records for Seoul in mid-June show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, June 13th highs ranged from approximately 20°C to 28°C, with an average around 24–25°C. Notably, the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either highly uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect conditions outside typical ranges. The settlement window closes at midday on June 13th, meaning only morning and early-afternoon temperatures count; this timing excludes the day's potential peak warmth, which typically occurs in late afternoon.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early June 2026, particularly whether high-pressure systems or low-pressure troughs are expected to dominate the Korean peninsula during that week. The East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing—which can occur anywhere from early June onwards—significantly influences whether conditions remain warm and dry or shift cooler and wetter. Real-time forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically available five to ten days ahead, will provide the most precise guidance on whether temperatures align with historical norms or deviate substantially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.