Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station using the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with resolution based on the highest recorded reading in Celsius rather than summary figures.

August in Shanghai typically sees peak summer heat, with historical daily maxima regularly exceeding 35°C during mid-to-late August. Data from the past decade shows that temperatures on 21 August have ranged between 32–37°C, with 2023 recording 36.1°C and 2022 reaching 35.8°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome outside typical August ranges, though the specific threshold triggering this assessment remains unclear from market parameters. Comparable late-August dates in Shanghai's climate record indicate sustained high temperatures are the norm rather than exception during this period.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 21 August 2026, requiring real-time monitoring of Pudong station readings as they update throughout the morning. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table will be the definitive source, distinguishing this from casual weather summaries that may report rounded or adjusted figures. Traders should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early August 2026 and any unusual atmospheric patterns affecting East China in the weeks preceding the resolution date. Typhoon activity or unexpected cold fronts moving through the region could materially shift temperature outcomes, though such disruptions to typical August conditions remain statistically uncommon.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.