Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the settlement site, so the key number is the day’s *observed* high on the station report rather than a citywide average. Early summer in Shanghai is usually warm to hot and humid, with June normals around 27°C to 30°C on many forecasts, and airport-specific June highs commonly clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius on the warmest days.[1][2][3]

A 0% yes price implies the market is currently treating the relevant temperature band as effectively unreachable, but the historical and forecast context does not support that reading. AccuWeather’s June 2026 outlook for Pudong International Airport shows daily highs running from 77°F to 89°F, which is about 25°C to 32°C, while WeatherSpark places the June average high at roughly 83°F and notes rare excursions above 92°F, or about 33°C.[1][2] The market’s probability can therefore move quickly if the day turns sunnier and less rain-affected than expected.

Traders should watch the airport forecast updates, particularly rainfall and cloud cover, because June in Shanghai is rain-prone and stormy days often hold highs down in the 20s Celsius.[3][7] The decisive inputs are the afternoon heating trend and any late shower activity before the settlement cutoff; even modest forecast changes around the airport can shift the top end of the day’s realised range. AccuWeather’s airport forecast is already in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius for much of the month, so a clear-sky outcome would be more supportive of a higher bracket than a wet one.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.