Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience early summer conditions on 1 June 2026, with the market seeking to identify the single highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport that day. June marks the transition into Shenzhen's hot and humid season, preceding the onset of the monsoon rains that typically arrive in May and intensify through summer months.

Historical records from Shenzhen Bao'an show June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating the market as inactive. Comparable June days at the airport station over the past decade have produced highs spanning this range, with coastal location and urban heat effects creating variability around seasonal norms. Early June sits before the most intense heat of July and August, though pre-monsoon conditions can still generate significant daily maximums.

The resolution depends entirely on meteorological data from Wunderground's historical records for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station on the settlement date. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric patterns require advance tracking—the outcome is determined by actual recorded temperatures on the day itself. Traders should verify the specific temperature bands offered in the market's resolution categories, as the settlement will automatically pull historical data once 1 June 2026 concludes, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.