Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the actual high temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, likely due to prevailing weather patterns. Historical data frames this probability sharply: June 25 has historically been a warm day, with 2026 marking the highest low temperature ever recorded on this date at 22.9°C since records began in 1938[9]. Furthermore, extreme heat events are not uncommon in Toronto, with Pearson Airport recently hitting 35.8°C, the hottest temperature recorded in nearly a decade[3][8]. These comparable cases indicate that while high temperatures are possible, the 0% probability suggests the specific range in question is either too low to be plausible given the warming trend or too high to be reached under current atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor immediate weather announcements and forecast updates for the Greater Toronto Area, particularly regarding thunderstorm risks and heat warnings that could alter the day's peak temperature. Current conditions show a risk of thunderstorms with temperatures around 23°C, rising to a high of 25°C, but with an 80% probability of precipitation and main cloud cover expected for the next six hours[1][2]. The primary catalyst is the potential for thundery showers, which BBC Weather confirms could suppress the high temperature significantly below the seasonal average of 70°F[2]. Environment Canada has previously issued heat warnings for the region when temperatures approach 35°C, recommending outdoor activities be scheduled during cooler parts of the day[3]. A beat-reporter source from Environment and Climate Change Canada noted that a temperature of 35.8°C was recorded recently, highlighting the volatility of Toronto's summer weather and the dependency on whether cloud cover and precipitation persist through midday[3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00:00Z on 25 June 2026, so any late-morning weather shifts will be critical for the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.