Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 21 August 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. August is Wellington's coldest month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 11–13°C, though the city's exposed location and variable wind patterns create considerable day-to-day volatility.

Historical records from Wellington Airport show that August temperatures rarely exceed 15°C, with readings above 16°C occurring in fewer than 5% of August days over the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the highest temperature will fall below the lowest available range threshold on this market. August 2026 falls in the southern hemisphere's late winter period, when anticyclonic systems dominate and cold fronts regularly sweep across the region, typically suppressing daytime maxima.

The key variable affecting resolution will be whether a warm northerly flow develops ahead of a frontal system in the days leading to 21 August. Such patterns occasionally push Wellington's daily maxima into the 16–18°C band, though sustained warmth through August remains uncommon. Traders should monitor long-range forecasts from MetService and NIWA from mid-August onwards, as these will clarify whether anomalous warmth is likely. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than the Day High & Low summary—means the exact station recording protocol becomes material to settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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