Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Wellington International Airport will record a high temperature on 24 June 2026 that falls into a specific Celsius range, with current crowd-implied odds at 0% for the "YES" outcome. Historical data shows June highs at this station typically drop from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C), with overcast conditions frequent and solar energy remaining steady around 1.8 kWh [1]. Notably, MetService NZ confirmed earlier in June that Wellington already surpassed its record maximum June temperature, exceeding 19°C on the 1st and 2nd, suggesting extreme outliers are possible but not guaranteed for mid-month dates [5].

Traders should monitor live weather updates from Wunderground and MetService NZ for any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or precipitation, as light rain and moderate breezes are forecast for today [2][5]. The settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 24 June, so even brief sunny intervals could push readings above the typical 12–14°C range. With the record already broken earlier in the month, the key dependency is whether that anomaly repeats or if conditions revert to the seasonal average, making real-time forecasts from the National Weather Service critical for assessing probability shifts [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.