Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington is currently experiencing strong winds and rain on 25 June 2026, with a high of just 12°C recorded at the Wellington International Airport station, making a 0% crowd-implied probability for any higher temperature range entirely consistent with the immediate weather reality[3]. Historical data for June at this location shows average daily highs decreasing from 57°F to 54°F, with overcast conditions persisting about 42% of the time, reinforcing that extreme warmth is exceptionally rare in this month[1]. Even in recent record-breaking years, Wellington’s maximum June temperature has only reached just over 19°C, a figure that remains far below the thresholds implied by higher probability markets, suggesting the current 0% stance reflects a deep understanding of seasonal limits[5].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Wellington Intl Airport Station throughout the day, as the settlement relies on the single highest temperature recorded at any time on 25 June 2026[2]. The MetService NZ has already flagged record-breaking warmth earlier in the month, but today’s forecast of light rain and strong south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph strongly suppresses any chance of a temperature spike[3][5]. With pressure rising at 996mb and humidity at 72%, atmospheric conditions are firmly inhibiting solar heating, meaning the only catalyst that could alter the 0% probability would be an unexpected, unforecasted clear-sky event with sustained northerly winds—none of which are indicated in current models[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.