Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 18 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This reading forms the basis for resolving which temperature band the day's peak will fall within. The Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure, published in its Daily Extract dataset, serves as the sole authoritative source.

July in Hong Kong typically sees daily maximum temperatures between 32°C and 34°C, though readings occasionally exceed 35°C during particularly intense heat episodes. Historical data from the Observatory shows that mid-July peaks have ranged from 30.5°C in cooler years to 36.5°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on which specific temperature bands the market offers, or the market structure itself remains unclear to participants. Without access to the exact resolution bands, assessing the likelihood of any particular range requires reference to the Observatory's long-term July records and recent seasonal patterns.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any heat advisories issued in the weeks preceding 18 July 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Agency and reported through regional weather services, influence East Asian summer temperatures. Additionally, the timing of the southwest monsoon onset and any tropical cyclone activity in early July could shift atmospheric conditions and affect peak temperatures on the settlement date. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks in advance, providing updated probability distributions for temperature ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.