Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature, a single-day snapshot that traders must weigh against Japan’s escalating heat trends. Recent history frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a 26°C threshold as deeply questionable. In July 2024, Japan endured its hottest month ever, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in seven locations and a 2.16°C anomaly above average[2]. Just last month, on 30 July 2025, the nation shattered its all-time record at 41.2°C in Tamba City, surpassing the 41.1°C mark set in 2018[1]. Mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely hits 36–40°C with over 95% humidity, making a 26°C peak virtually impossible under normal summer conditions[3].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground data for the Haneda station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day[4]. The forecast for Haneda in July 2026 already indicates daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24–33°C), with overnight lows rarely dipping below 68°F[6]. Peak heat typically occurs between 11 AM and 6 PM, when concrete surfaces store intense heat, pushing ambient temperatures higher even after sunset[3]. No major weather disruptions or cooling systems are anticipated; the dependency remains solely on the natural summer progression. Given the consistent trend of record-breaking heatwaves since 1898, with 17 July heatwave records broken recently, the 0% probability for a 26°C cap appears misaligned with empirical data[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.