Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached during that calendar day in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric conditions. Historical June maxima in the territory typically range between 31°C and 34°C, though readings above 35°C occur in roughly one year per decade during particularly intense heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder until meteorological models narrow the range. June 2026 falls within the typical warm season window, making mid-range outcomes (32–34°C) historically more frequent than extreme highs or anomalously cool days.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's extended-range forecasts from May onwards, as these typically provide the most reliable 10–30 day guidance for the region. Tropical cyclone activity in early June could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over southern China would favour above-normal maxima. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and seasonal outlooks that may shift market expectations as June approaches. Settlement hinges entirely on official Observatory publication; any delays in data release would postpone resolution beyond the 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.