Highest temperature in London on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

London City Airport recorded a peak of 13°C today, confirming the crowd’s 0% probability that temperatures will reach the highest historical ranges for 16 July. Historically, mid-July in London often sees highs between 20°C and 28°C, with extreme outliers reaching 35°C+ during heatwaves like 2022. However, the current 0% YES probability suggests the market expects conditions to remain well below any record-breaking threshold, aligning with typical summer variability rather than anomalous heat.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for London City Airport (EGLC) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026. Any sudden shift in atmospheric pressure or humidity—currently at 88% with falling pressure—could signal rapid temperature changes. While no formal weather alerts are issued yet, forecasters from the Met Office typically issue heat warnings when temperatures exceed 30°C for two consecutive days; absence of such alerts reinforces the low probability of extreme heat. Watch for real-time revisions on BBC Weather or Wunderground history pages, as these are the official resolution sources.

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Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.