Highest temperature in London on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 24 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 76% chance that it will reach 36°C. Historical data for this period shows London City Airport entering its warm season from mid-June, with average daily highs exceeding 67°F (19.4°C) and the hottest month typically being July [4]. While recent heatwaves have pushed London to record highs, such extreme temperatures are sporadic; a comparable market for 6 June 2026 assigned only a 37% probability to 36°C, suggesting that 36°C is a high bar for early summer even in a warming climate [1]. The current 76% implied probability appears elevated relative to these precedents, indicating traders may be overreacting to recent warm trends or specific short-term forecasts.

Traders should monitor the live forecast updates from the Met Office and BBC Weather for the 24th, as cloud cover and wind direction will be the primary catalysts for temperature deviation [2][6]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data, which records the peak temperature for all times on the day, meaning a brief afternoon spike could resolve the market regardless of morning conditions [9]. Key dependencies include the southerly wind flow currently observed at 8 mph, which often brings warmer air from the continent, and the falling pressure of 1012mb, which can signal unstable weather patterns [2]. Any sudden shift to northerly winds or increased cloud cover before midday would likely invalidate the high probability of 36°C, making real-time monitoring of the 6/24 hour high temperature chart essential [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.