Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome exceeding the defined thresholds. This 0% YES stance reflects a market consensus that extreme heat is unlikely, yet it ignores the precedent of the July 2026 heatwave that shattered records across the East Coast, including New York City, breaking 14-to-154-year highs simultaneously during a holiday weekend [3]. Historical data from the National Weather Service confirms LaGuardia’s capacity for significant mid-summer spikes, suggesting the current pricing may be overly dismissive of regional volatility [1].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the National Weather Service for New York, specifically looking for heat advisories or sudden shifts in the jet stream that could trigger a temperature surge before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. While the frontrunner outcome is 86–87°F at 35%, followed closely by 88–89°F at 30%, the zero probability on the upper ranges creates a stark divergence from the recent record-breaking trend [2]. The primary catalyst remains the Wunderground daily history for KLGA, which will serve as the definitive resolution source; any pre-12:00 UTC spike in local forecasts could rapidly alter the implied probabilities if the heatwave pattern persists.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.