Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its highest July 20 temperature in recent decades as 82–83°F, a range that aligns precisely with the current 100% crowd-implied probability for that bracket on Polymarket. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that mid-July highs in NYC typically cluster between 78°F and 85°F, with extremes rarely dipping below 70°F or exceeding 90°F in the last 30 years [2]. The market’s 0% probability for “69°F or below” reflects this thermal consistency, as no July 20 in the past two decades has fallen into that cool tier at KLGA.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the New York metropolitan area, which updates daily and often signals heatwave development 3–5 days ahead of the event. A key catalyst will be the arrival of the Atlantic high-pressure ridge, which typically drives sustained highs above 80°F in late July; if this system stalls or weakens, temperatures could dip toward 75°F. Additionally, watch for any official adjustments to the Wunderground resolution source or station metadata, as KLGA’s elevation and proximity to water can cause minor deviations from inland readings. No coaching changes or team absences apply here—this is purely a meteorological dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.