Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, the single metric determining settlement for this weather market. Historical data shows July is Paris’s warmest month, with average daily highs reaching 27.0°C, making extreme heat a recurring seasonal feature rather than an anomaly [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that is unlikely to be breached, yet the frontrunner outcome in the broader market is 28°C at 34%, followed closely by 27°C at 26%, indicating the market expects temperatures near or slightly above the historical average [2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather forecasts from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and wind patterns in the coming days could shift temperatures away from the 27–28°C range [2]. Since the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, any sudden heatwave or cooling event before that deadline will directly impact the final resolution. No coaching changes, team form, or player absences apply here—this is purely a meteorological event dependent on atmospheric conditions at the Paris-Le Bourget station. The key dependency is the accuracy of short-term forecasts leading into the settlement date, with Wunderground’s historical daily data serving as the definitive record [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.