Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 22 July, measured in degrees Celsius and settled from Wunderground’s daily history page. With the market showing a 0% implied chance for **YES** in the current framing, traders are effectively discounting a hotter-than-expected outcome, which is notable because Paris in late July commonly clusters around the mid-20s Celsius rather than extreme heat.

That makes past and comparable summer readings the main guide. The market’s own current outcome split is concentrated between **25°C** and **26°C**, each shown at 50%, which suggests participants are pricing a very narrow band around a mild-to-warm afternoon rather than a sharp spike. In practical terms, the most relevant comparison case is whether the day peaks just below or just above the mid-20s threshold, because that is where this contract is currently anchored.

The main catalysts are the daytime forecast updates for north-eastern France, especially any change in cloud cover, onshore flow, or thunderstorm risk that could cap the afternoon maximum, or conversely allow stronger insolation to push readings up. The final settlement outcome will depend on the highest observation at Paris-Le Bourget by the close of the settlement window, so late-morning model revisions and any short-term forecast adjustments are the key inputs traders will watch.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.