Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul will experience its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport determining the market outcome. Historical data shows July is the hottest month in the region, where average daily highs reach 28°C, though extreme heatwaves frequently push temperatures well above this baseline [1]. The current 0% implied probability for the highest range suggests the crowd expects a moderate day, yet this contradicts the typical volatility of Korean summer weather, where humidity levels average 80% and can trap heat, creating conditions for sudden spikes in temperature [1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts released early each morning, as summer heatwaves in Seoul are often triggered by the northward shift of the Pacific high-pressure system. Recent climate patterns indicate that July 2026 could see a repeat of the 2023 heatwave, which pushed Incheon temperatures to 35°C or higher, a scenario the current pricing ignores [1]. The primary catalyst is the arrival of any tropical moisture from the south, which historically increases both humidity and maximum temperatures; a lack of rain, which occurs on 57% of July days, would further amplify heat retention [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.