Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official weather observation point for the metropolitan area. July is Seoul's hottest month, with average daily highs around 29°C, though extreme heat events regularly push readings into the mid-30s. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official Korean Meteorological Administration data.

Historical records show Seoul has exceeded 35°C on roughly one in three days during late July over the past two decades. The city recorded 36.9°C on 25 July 2018 and 37.5°C on 24 July 2023, establishing that temperatures in the upper-30s are plausible but not guaranteed for this specific date. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest range suggests traders are pricing in a cooler outcome than recent seasonal patterns would indicate, though the settlement window extends only to midday, potentially excluding afternoon peaks.

The key variable is whether a heat dome or high-pressure system settles over the Korean peninsula in late July 2026. Seasonal forecasting models typically become reliable only 10–14 days before the event, meaning meaningful catalyst information will emerge in mid-July. Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration extended forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as typhoons can suppress temperatures significantly. El Niño or La Niña conditions in 2026 will also influence broader atmospheric patterns affecting East Asia's summer heat distribution.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.