Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

Seoul on 24 June 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, with the market betting on whether that figure falls into a specific Celsius range. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders expect the temperature to stay well below the threshold in question, likely reflecting confidence in typical late-June conditions rather than extreme heat.

Historically, Seoul’s June highs average 87°F (30.6°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (30.9°C) [3], while the all-time Korean heat record of 41.0°C (105.8°F) occurred in Hongcheon, not Seoul [2]. Even during Seoul’s hottest June in 62 years, temperatures reached only 35.2°C (95.4°F) [6], far below the 41°C mark. This pattern frames the 0% probability as rational: extreme outliers are geographically and climatically improbable for Incheon.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live data for Incheon on 24 June, particularly the 3 PM reading when peak heat typically occurs [6]. Any sudden shift in the North Pacific high-pressure system could elevate temperatures, but such events are rare in late June [5]. Watch for official weather agency updates from South Korea, which recently flagged this June as the hottest ever nationally, though Incheon’s coastal position usually moderates extremes [8]. No major absences or coaching changes apply here—only atmospheric dependencies matter.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.