Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat expected at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, a date that historically sits within Seoul’s warmest June window. Current market pricing shows a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, yet this contradicts active trading data where 26°C holds a 37% frontrunner share and 27°C follows at 33%[1]. This divergence suggests the zero probability may reflect a specific resolution threshold rather than an absence of heat, as June highs in Seoul typically range between 77°F and 81°F (25–27°C), rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[2].

Historical precedents frame this probability sharply: Seoul recorded 35.6°C on 19 June 2026, the highest June temperature since 1958, marking the capital’s hottest June in 52 years[8]. This recent extreme aligns with broader 2025 trends where South Korea endured its hottest summer since 1973, with Seoul hitting 35.8°C in August[5][7]. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily updates for Incheon specifically, as the resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at RKSI station, not city-wide averages[1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns before 12:00 UTC could alter the peak, but the current heatwave momentum makes sub-26°C outcomes statistically unlikely given the 2026 baseline[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.