Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 18 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records via Wunderground. July represents the peak of Shanghai's summer season, when daily highs typically range between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 37°C.

Historical July data from Shanghai shows considerable year-to-year variation. The city has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C during severe heatwaves, most recently in 2013 when the mercury reached 40.8°C. However, such extremes occur irregularly; most July days settle in the 33–36°C band. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that rarely materialises or uncertainty about which range the market has defined. Without visibility on the exact temperature brackets offered, the baseline expectation should anchor to Shanghai's climatological mean for mid-July rather than outlier scenarios.

Traders monitoring this market should track weather forecasts released in the week preceding 18 July 2026, particularly any alerts from China's meteorological authority regarding high-pressure systems or heatwave conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence East Asian summer temperatures; current oceanic conditions heading into 2026 will shape whether the season trends warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. Urban heat island effects at the airport station itself—influenced by surrounding development and runway activity—can elevate readings 1–2°C above broader Shanghai averages on clear, windless days.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.