Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle up to the resolution point.

June in Shanghai typically sees temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical records from the past decade show that mid-June highs at Pudong station range from 26°C in cooler years to 37°C during anomalously warm periods. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or expect the market to resolve to a baseline range. Comparable June dates in 2023 and 2024 recorded highs of 31–33°C, providing a reasonable reference point for typical conditions.

The key variable affecting Shanghai's temperature on that date will be the position and intensity of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, which typically strengthens through mid-June. Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration beginning in early June, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The East Asian monsoon transition period can produce volatile conditions; any northward surge of tropical moisture or blocking high-pressure systems could push temperatures significantly above or below the seasonal norm. Real-time satellite imagery and model consensus from late May onwards will provide the most reliable signals for positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.