Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with daily transits hovering between 5 and 8 vessels, far below the 60-ships-per-day threshold required for this market to resolve favourably[1][3]. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 153 vessels daily, and even after the April ceasefire between the US and Iran, traffic has recovered to only roughly 6.4 ships per day[1][4]. Historical precedent suggests that post-conflict maritime reopenings in this region rarely achieve prewar volumes within months; the current 1% probability reflects the consensus that normalisation is unlikely before July 2026, given that recent weekly averages have stabilised at just 40 vessels per day—still two-thirds short of the target[6].

Traders should monitor the 60-day negotiation phase outlined in the US-Iran agreement, which mandates reopening but allows for delays due to mine-clearing and technical hurdles[7]. Key catalysts include IMF Portwatch’s weekly transit reports, any announcement of fee reinstatement by Iran post-negotiation, and naval clearance operations in the waterway[7]. Recent data from Kpler shows traffic remains unpredictable, with daily counts fluctuating between 11 and 25 ships, indicating no sustained momentum toward the 60-ships benchmark[7]. Until the blockade is fully rescinded and mines cleared, the strait will likely remain in a “new normal” of restricted flow rather than returning to prewar levels[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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