Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 91% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 91% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for LoL: Karmine Corp vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Sentinels in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 16 at 7:20AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Karmine Corp vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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