Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a figure that historically sits well above the threshold for a “no” outcome in this market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES aligns with robust historical data: July highs at this location typically range from 26–31°C (79–88°F), with peaks often reaching 35°C (95°F) or higher. In July 2025, the station recorded 38°C (100°F), and average daily highs in early July increase by 5°F, climbing from 84°F to 88°F, rarely falling below 75°F [1][3]. The coldest day in the first ten days of July is usually 3 July (24.3°C), but 4 July is consistently warmer, with the warmest day in the month occurring around 29 July at 32.5°C [6].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and National Weather Service feeds for the Pudong station, particularly cloud cover and precipitation probability, which could suppress peak temperatures. Current forecasts for the afternoon of 4 July indicate a mix of sunshine and clouds with a 60% chance of local thunderstorms, potentially capping temperatures at 81°F (27.2°C) [2]. However, such a dip is an outlier; early July still sees daytime temperatures hovering above 30°C (86°F) and often exceeding 35°C (95°F) [8]. Key dependencies include the timing of peak solar radiation (typically 3 PM) and wind speed, which averages 11.3–12.4 mph in July and may influence heat dispersion [1]. Any sudden shift in storm patterns or cloud density could alter the day’s maximum, but historical trends strongly favour a high temperature well above the market’s implied “no” threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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